Three Reasons the Mets Will Win The NL East

 1 Buck Showalter

The best manager in baseball. Never will be outmanaged, always prepared, hungry, respected by all. Best of all, he is not Mickey Callaway or Luis Rojas. Enough said.

2 Reinforced Roster

During the swoon of the month of June, the Mets have had a few flaws exposed. For one thing, we can all agree the bullpen does not have a lot of depth. Adam Ottavino gave up a walk-off home run to a backup catcher no one had ever heard of in Houston, but prior to that, he had allowed 1 run in 7 weeks and currently has a 2.86 ERA. Then Drew Smith gives up a brutal go-ahead ninth-inning HR to Jason Castro, who has a little pop as any player on the Astros roster. His ERA has skyrocketed to 2.48 and his WHIP to 1.07. But some Mets fans are ready to toss both of them onto the Grand Central Parkway.

The return of Colin Holderman will improve the pen. Trevor May is working his way back and I still maintain he has never been healthy since joining the Mets. Hopefully this time off will fix whatever needed to be addressed.

Let’s be fair about this, bullpens are now 8-9 pitchers deep. There is simply no way to have 8 or 9 elite level talents in the bullpen anymore. And as the games shorten in October and the back to backs become a memory, teams just need 3 or 4 relief pitchers they can rely on.

Edwin Diaz is a lights out closer, that is to be respected at this point. Smith, Ottavino, and Seth Lugo have given up big hits at times this year, but are largely effective when called upon. Tommy Hunter has not allowed a run in 4 innings but after his multitude of back problems, he is not a pitcher to be used too frequently, I would never even pitch him back to back days, pardon the pun. Joely Rodrguez has shown a few flashed, but he is either really good or really bad. Chasen Shreve and Yoan Lopez, well, the less said the better.

 The most desirable name is David Bednar of the Pirates. In 36 innings, he has 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and 11 saves. Just like the Braves got closer Richard Rodriguez from the Pirates last year to reinforce their bullpen, this would be the Mets' time to do the same thing. Plus Bednar is only 27 years old and would be under control for four years before he hits unrestricted free agency. For his arsenal, he relies on his 97 MPH fastball, which he counters with a curveball and occasional changeup. The only concern is what kind of prospects the Pirates would want back for an asset that is cost-effective, dominant, and relatively young.

A few other names I like: Joe Mantiply of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He’s not a household name, but he simply knows how to pitch. Mantiply, 31, has pitched 29 innings, including two saves. He’s allowed 24 hits, has allowed four earned runs and one walk, while striking out 20 batters. His ERA is 1.24 and his WHIP is 0.86.

What makes Mantiply so effective is that he induces nearly 60 percent of his contact on the ground. He has the 14th best groundball rate in the majors at 58.8%. With Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Luis Guillorme patrolling the infield, Mantiply can be confident his defense will turn those groundballs into outs. Oh and he too has four years of team control remaining.

Also, I like Daniel Bard from Colorado. He’s 37, but he has been dominant this year. Over 29.2 innings pitched in 2022, he has allowed just 15 hits and 13 walks to go with 36 strikeouts. He has compiled 15 saves with a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Bard is basically a two-pitch pitcher at this point in his career. He throws his 98 mile per hour sinker 48 percent of the time and will mix in an 88 MPH slider another 48 percent. Bard would not cost as much, considering his age and his upcoming free agency after this season.

 And here is my other idea. I would insert Tylor Megill into the bullpen upon his return in late August/early September. He has had too many injury issues and he could be that 2 inning weapon that no one else has.

Also, there have been too many times in the last month, when they have not gotten hits with runners on base. In fact, it’s been ominously reminiscent of 2021…and other seasons before that to be frank. The offense took a notable hit in the week they played without Jeff McNeil; even though Buck prefers to hit him lower in the lineup, he has returned to his 2019 form and is putting the ball in play rather than swinging for the fences. And the fact that an injured Ozzie Albies received more 2B All Star votes than McNeil is a complete travesty.

For the offense, I would call up either Francisco Alvarez or Mark Vientos right away to serve as the full time DH. I would just want them to focus on swinging the bats and not have to worry about defense. We know what Dom Smith is, we know what JD Davis is. They were very good Mets for 2019, but they are simply not going to be everyday starters now. It’s time to add another thumper to this lineup and before the Mets trade for one, they should see if one of their own can handle the job.

If the Mets decide they need an additional bat, Willson Contreras would certainly pique my interest, but there will be abiding war for his services, which will be over once this season ends. Trey Mancini from the Orioles and possibly Josh Bell from Washington could also be had.

 

3 Strength of Schedule

Ultimately the most important part of the remaining schedule is the 15 remaining games where the Mets and Braves will go head to head. What about the other 70-71 games that both teams still have remaining on their schedule?

 The Mets have the 5^th easiest remaining schedule in baseball, their opponents have a combined .479 winning percentage. Of their 86 remaining games, they still have 6 games against Cincinnati, 9 against Washington, 3 vs Oakland, 6 vs the Cubs, 7 vs the Pirates, and 4 vs Colorado. In total, they have 35 games against teams over .500 and 51 games against teams under .500. Here is the full schedule breakdown with number of games left vs opposing teams.

NYY 4 56-21

LAD 3  47-28

SD 3     46-32

Atl 15   44-33

Mil 3    44-34

Phi 7    40-37

Tex 3   36-38

Mia 12 34-40

Col 4    33-43

Pit 7     31-45

ChC 7  30-46

Was 9   29-49

Cin 6    26-49

Oak 3   25-53

 Let’s compare that to Atlanta. The Braves have the 10^th easiest remaining schedule, their opponents combined winning percentage is .492. They have 85 games remaining, including 12 against the Phillies, who have battled them well this year. On the lower end, they have 3 games series against Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Colorado. But they also have 10 combined games against the Cardinals and Giants, two teams the Mets won’t have to see again during this regular season. Not to mention three more with Houston.

And we all know Atlanta had their 14 game winning streak in June, how cute. They did it against Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Washington, the absolute dregs of baseball and none of whom will come close to finishing with a winning record. Since that streak ended, they are 7 up and 6 down. They are a bully team, plain and simple.

But some might say the Mets just got swept 4 games by Houston, what can they do against good teams? Well, they’re 9-3 vs Philly, 5-2 vs St Louis, 4-3 vs San Francisco, 2-1 vs Milwaukee, and 2-2 vs the league-leading Dodgers. So spare me with the Mets not being able to compete against quality competition.

Atlanta will play 42 games vs teams over .500 and 43 vs teams under .500. Let’s look at the same breakdown.

 

Hou 3   48-27

Mets 15 47-29

Bos 2   43-33

StL 7    43-35

SF 3     40-34

Phi 12  40-37

LAA 3 37-41

Sea 3    37-41

Mia 10 34-40

Arz 3    34-42

Col 3    33-43

Pit 3     31-45

Was 13 29-49

Cin 3    26-49

Oak 2   25-53

If the Mets can hold serve against Atlanta, just go 8-7, they have an excellent chance to hold off Atlanta for the NL East crown. But even if they don’t, it just means they will grab a wild card spot and have to start the playoffs on the road in a 3 game series. And if they have Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer pitching 2 of those three games with Edwin Diaz closing them, I’ll take my chances against any offense in the National League.