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The Evolution of Edwin Diaz

One of the most infamous trades in Mets history took place on December 3, 2018 when they traded OF Jay Bruce, RP Anthony Swarzak, and three of their top prospects to Seattle for two players: 36 year old 2B Robinson Cano and young stud closer Edwin Diaz. This trade has been dissected endlessly by the baseball media and Mets fans. As soon as the trade was finalized, it was distressing to learn the Mets were taking on the remainder of Robinson Cano's contract, which was 5 years and $120 million. So, the hope was Diaz would emerge as a great closer. Not a good one, but an elite closer. And that's what he had been in his years as a Mariner. Here are some of Diaz' stats from 2016-2018.

3 years in Seattle
2.64 ERA
14.2 K/9
109 saves
12 blown saves
90 save percentage

And his first season, 2019, was one of the most disappointing in team history. Let's look at those numbers.

2019
58 innings
26 saves
7 blown saves
78 save percentage
58 hits
15 home runs
36 earned runs
5.59 ERA
22 walks
99 strikeouts
15.4 K/9
1.38 WHIP

Diaz basically blew 1 out of every 4 save attempts. But deeper than that, he allowed a home run every 3.9 innings and his ERA doubled. There were many Mets fans who wanted him off the team. Sure he could throw the ball hard, but baseball is littered with closers who throw hard and fail in pivotal games. They thought he could not handle New York. Well, did those numbers get better in 2020 and 2021? Let's take a look.

First 3 years with the Mets (2019-2021)
3.23 ERA, down 2.36 from 2019
14.6 K/9, slightly down
20 HR, he only allowed 5 home runs over the next 2 years
64 saves, he averaged 32 saves in the next two years after 26 in Year 1.
15 blown saves, half of his blown saves as a Met came in Year 1
79 save percentage, basically the same rate.

So while he did get better results in his second and third seasons, it wasn't dominance. But with the team never contending for a playoff spot deep into either season, he never had a big moment to redeem himself in the eyes of his critics.

Now we're midway through the 2022 season. Let's look at how Diaz is pitching this season.

2022
29.2 innings
16 saves
3 blown saves
84 save percentage
23 hits
3 home runs
7 earned runs
2.12 ERA
11 walks
57 strikeouts
17.3 K/9
1.14 WHIP

There are a few stats that are just jarring. Diaz is striking out 2 batters per inning, which is a fantastic rate. His ERA has gone way down, and he's giving up a HR every 10 innings instead of every 4. So what has caused the turnaround?

There are two primary aspects of Diaz' pitching to focus on. The first is his first strike percentage is as high as it has ever been. During his best season in 2018, he threw a first pitch strike 67.5% of the time. In 2019, it dropped to 63%, and then down to 60% in each of the next two seasons.

But now in 2022, Diaz is throwing a first pitch strike 70% of the time. And as Diaz is getting ahead in the count early, that makes him just that much more dangerous. He can then work outside the strike zone and get more swings and misses.

The second reason for Diaz' improved performance is the increase of him using his slider. Diaz only throws two pitches, the fastball and the slider. In 2022, for the first time in his career, he is throwing the slider more than he the fastball; 54% of the time, he throws the slider, compared to the fastball, which he is using 46% of the time. And it makes sense, considering that fact that opponents are hitting .171 vs the slider compared to .297 vs the fastball, even though that fastball is reaching up to 103 MPH.

Also, Diaz is getting swings and misses on 51% of sliders thrown. The result? A 48.3% strikeout percentage, compared to 34.6% in 2021.

Is this remarkable improvement to be credited to Diaz himself? Manager Buck Showalter? Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner? All of the above? No matter who gets the credit, the Mets are a far better team in 2022 because Edwin Diaz has established himself as not only of the most capable closers in baseball, but also one of the most reliable. And three years ago, what Mets fan would have thought that was possible?

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Location: Newport News, VA, USA

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